金融危机十年后，两位SIPA教授的新书分析了监管部门的应对措施-新东方前途出国

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　　Ten years after the financial crisis, a new book from two SIPA professors analyzes the regulatory response.

　　金融危机十年后，两位SIPA教授的新书分析了监管部门的应对措施。

　　November 21, 2019 after the crash.png 

　　坠机后2019年11月21日.png

　　After the Crash: Financial Crises and Regulatory Responses (Columbia University Press)

　　金融危机与监管对策（哥伦比亚大学出版社）

　　More than ten years after the global financial crisis of 2008, Sharyn O’Halloran, the George Blumenthal Professor of Political Economics and professor of international and public affairs, and Thomas Groll, a lecturer in the discipline of international and public affairs, have coedited After the Crash: Financial Crisis and Regulatory Responses (Columbia University Press), a collection of essays from economists, academics, and elected officials involved in regulation that provides a holistic reflection on the worst financial crisis and the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression.

　　2008年全球金融危机爆发十多年后，乔治·布卢门撒尔政治经济学教授、国际与公共事务教授夏琳·奥哈洛兰和国际与公共事务学科讲师托马斯·格罗尔，《金融危机与监管对策》（哥伦比亚大学出版社）是一本由经济学家、学者和参与监管的民选官员撰写的论文集，全面反映了大萧条以来最严重的金融危机和最严重的经济衰退。 在线咨询

　　What was the impetus to create this book? When you started the process, what did you want to accomplish in assembling these various essays in one place?

　　创作这本书的动力是什么？当你开始这个过程的时候，你想在一个地方把这些不同的文章组合起来完成什么？

　　O’Halloran: We were studying these issues ourselves, with a lot of data science techniques, natural language processing, and machine learning, both here and in Europe. And we were approaching 10 years [since the financial crisis] and kept thinking, “Have we learned anything? Have we actually grown in our understanding?”

　　奥哈洛兰：我们自己在研究这些问题，有很多数据科学技术、自然语言处理和机器学习，在这里和欧洲都有。我们（自金融危机以来）已经接近10年了，一直在想，“我们学到了什么吗？我们的理解真的增长了吗？”

　　Our own assessments were that the regulations, many of which were very good, still didn't hit the mark here or abroad. It wasn't clear to anyone whether the regulations that were being imposed were going to actually have the effect that they all hoped for, both in industry and in government.

　　我们自己的评价是，这些规定，其中许多是非常好的，在国内外仍然没有达到标准。目前还不清楚，无论是在工业界还是在政府部门，正在实施的法规是否真的会产生他们所希望的效果。 在线咨询

　　And instead of just sharing our own work, we thought of bringing together figures from industry, from the government—from both Europe and other places in the United States—and top-notch academics to get a really good, 360-degree perspective of what was going on.

　　我们不只是分享我们自己的工作，而是想把来自业界、来自欧洲和美国其他地方的政府以及一流学者的数据汇集在一起，对发生的事情有一个真正好的、360度的视角。

　　Groll: In 2017 people thought there was a political window for reform, so we wanted to take stock of what had happened over the [preceding] ten years—to review what we had learned, and see where there was room for potential discussion of improvements. I think what came out is that the system does seem to be safer; we stabilized the economy. At the same time nobody was really suggesting that we have efficient regulation in place. And the regulatory complexity is actually creating risk to some extent. The book also addresses the impact of new technologies like cryptocurrencies and cybersecurity.

　　格罗尔：2017年，人们认为有一个改革的政治窗口，所以我们想总结一下过去十年发生的事情，回顾一下我们学到的东西，看看还有什么地方可以讨论改进。我认为结果是这个体系看起来确实更安全了；我们稳定了经济。与此同时，没有人真正建议我们制定有效的监管措施。监管的复杂性实际上在某种程度上造成了风险。这本书还讨论了新技术如加密货币和网络安全的影响。 在线咨询

　　We know that financial regulation usually comes after crashes. Hopefully we won’t require another crash to optimize our regulation. But the political windows when regulation actually can happen are limited; it's not free of politics, unfortunately

　　我们知道金融监管通常是在崩溃之后。希望我们不会要求再次崩溃来优化我们的监管。但是，当监管真正发生的时候，政治窗口是有限的；不幸的是，它并不是没有政治的

　　With an election coming next fall will there be possibly another political window for some regulation?

　　随着明年秋天的选举即将到来，是否会有另一个政治窗口来进行一些监管？

　　O’Halloran: What we're seeing now is that agencies are setting the rules using the discretion they have within big regulatory structures and statutes. So because there's been a lot of concern about liquidity crunches, for example, you're seeing some loosening up of things some capital reserve requirements. But more fundamental regulation, no.

　　奥哈洛兰：我们现在看到的是，各机构正在利用其在大型监管结构和法规中的自由裁量权制定规则。因此，因为人们对流动性紧缩的担忧很多，比如，你看到一些事情的放松，一些资本储备要求。但更基本的规则，不是。 在线咨询

　　The framework and thinking that comes out of this whole process is a notion of real risk identification and risk mitigation. I think what's novel about the book is that it illustrates how concerns about risk reshaped the way people want to think about financial regulation law. When does it happen, what are its impacts, and what do we look for moving forward? And I think that's what a lot of people grabbed on to. If there's a thread that runs through it, it's risk analytics.

　　整个过程产生的框架和思想是一个真正的风险识别和风险缓解的概念。我认为这本书的新颖之处在于，它说明了人们对风险的担忧如何重塑了人们对金融监管法的思考方式什么时候会发生，有什么影响，我们期待着什么样的进展？我想很多人都是这么想的。如果有线索贯穿其中，那就是风险分析。

　　You mentioned before that you were in touch with a variety of academics, both here and abroad, and other key figures like then congressman Barney Frank and former [SEC director and] JPMorgan vice chairman Stephen Cutler, among others. So how did you go about choosing the contributors?

　　你之前提到，你接触过国内外各种学者，以及其他重要人物，比如当时的国会议员巴尼·弗兰克（Barney Frank）和前[证券交易委员会（SEC）董事兼]摩根大通副董事长斯蒂芬·卡特勒（Stephen Cutler）等。那么你是如何选择投稿人的呢？ 在线咨询

　　O’Halloran: You build up a lot of community in this field. I talk to everybody; I have friends in a lot of places. In the end we got a very good group of people—at a very high level, across the political spectrum—who were very excited to take part.That was the way we went about it — finding the best and brightest in every segment and really reaching out. And we got a really good return rate on that.

　　奥哈洛兰：你在这个领域建立了很多社区。我和每个人都说话，我在很多地方都有朋友。最后，我们得到了一批非常高水平的人，他们来自各个政治阶层，他们都非常兴奋地参与进来，我们就是这样做的——在每一个环节中找到最优秀、最聪明的人，并真正发挥自己的作用。我们得到了很好的回报率。

　　How important is global coordination? Given the rise in nationalist idealism, dialogue, and rhetoric, does that play a role in how you regulate moving forward?

　　全球协调有多重要？鉴于民族主义理想主义、对话和修辞的兴起，这是否对你如何规范前进起到了作用？

　　O’Halloran: The most important thing that immediately happened to stabilize the world economy [in 2008] were the swap markets opened by the central banks to make sure there was sufficient liquidity of movement of currencies [across the world], with enough dollars and Euros out there to make everything still move. And those swap markets were coordinated, completely untransparent, but had one primary objective—to assure liquidity. I don't see something like that as bumping up against nationalism, per se.

　　奥哈洛兰：在稳定世界经济（2008年）方面，最重要的是各国央行开放的掉期市场，以确保（全球）货币流动有足够的流动性，有足够的美元和欧元，使一切仍在继续。而这些互换市场是协调的，完全没有转移，但有一个首要目标，以确保流动性。我不认为这样的事情会加剧对民族主义的反对。 在线咨询

　　At the same time, to the extent that you need more coordinated efforts on regulation, on setting monetary policy, setting trade policy, that's where nationalism is going to really bite the real economy and, in essence, the financial system. Having central bankers being able to coordinate on having swaps available, that is a huge way to ensure stability within the global economy.

　　同时，在某种程度上，你需要在监管、货币政策制定、贸易政策制定等方面做出更协调的努力，这才是民族主义真正会对实体经济和实质上金融体系造成冲击的地方。让各国央行能够就提供掉期进行协调，这是确保全球经济稳定的一个巨大途径。

　　Groll: When you have a crisis moment, the risk is going to be spreading across the markets too much, so you want to have a coordination. And, obviously, the whole tariff and international trade component is going to be how nationalist real economy issues are going to go into a global, connected financial system.

　　格罗尔：当你遇到危机的时候，风险会在市场上蔓延太多，所以你需要一个协调。而且，很明显，整个关税和国际贸易组成部分将是民族主义实体经济问题将如何进入一个全球、相互关联的金融体系。

　　This interview, conducted by Daniel E. White MPA ’20, has been condensed and edited for clarity.

　　本次采访由Daniel E.White MPA'20主持，为了清晰起见，本次采访经过了精简和编辑。