MIT technology powers new, accessible climate solutions simulator
麻省理工学院技术为新的、可访问的气候解决方案模拟器提供动力
Dec 3, 2019
2019年12月3日
Online interface simulates 100 years of energy, land and climate data in less than one second to identify solutions to limit warming to within 2 degrees Celsius by 2100
在线界面在不到一秒钟的时间内模拟100年的能源、土地和气候数据，以确定到2100年将变暖控制在2摄氏度以内的解决方案
Cambridge, MA, December 3, 2019 —The Sustainability Initiative at the MIT Sloan School of Management and Climate Interactive today launched a free, user-friendly version of their En-ROADS climate solutions simulator, which enables users to explore the impact of policies that will help limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius through 2100 with the goal of avoiding irreversible damage to the environment, global economy, and public health. The new software allows people with all levels of technical skills to simulate the interactions among energy, land, and climate through the end of the century in less than one second.
马萨诸塞州剑桥，2019年12月3日-麻省理工斯隆管理与气候互动学院的可持续发展倡议今天推出了一个免费的、用户友好的En ROADS气候解决方案模拟器，这使得用户能够探索政策的影响，这些政策将有助于在2100年之前将全球变暖控制在不超过2摄氏度，以避免对环境、全球经济和公共健康造成不可逆转的损害。新的软件可以让具有各种技术水平的人在不到一秒钟的时间内模拟本世纪末能源、土地和气候之间的相互作用。
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While such tools have previously been developed for climate modelers and analysts, En-ROADS, a system dynamics model, is designed for policy makers, leaders in business and civil society, educators, and those interested in identifying high-leverage climate solutions.
虽然这些工具以前是为气候建模者和分析人员开发的，但En-ROADS是一个系统动力学模型，是为决策者、商界和民间社会领导人、教育工作者以及那些对确定高杠杆气候解决方案感兴趣的人而设计的。
“Research shows that showing people research doesn’t work” saysJohn Sterman, professor of System Dynamics at MIT and faculty director of the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative. “En-ROADS allows people to learn for themselves by exploring how the policies they choose affect the energy system and climate. Users get instant results, allowing them to experiment with a wide range of assumptions and policies that can help limit global warming and build a healthy, prosperous future in which all people can thrive.”
麻省理工学院系统动力学教授、麻省理工学院斯隆可持续发展计划（MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative）教授斯特曼（saysJohn Sterman）说：“研究表明，向人们展示研究是行不通的。”。“在公路上，人们可以通过探索他们所选择的政策如何影响能源系统和气候来自学。用户可以得到即时的结果，让他们能够试验各种各样的假设和政策，帮助限制全球变暖，建立一个健康、繁荣的未来，让所有人都能在其中茁壮成长。”
Through an intuitive interface, users move sliders to simulate the implementation of policies to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. Options include policies affecting global energy demand from transportation and industrial, residential and commercial buildings; energy production from coal, oil, gas, biomass, renewables, and nuclear; emissions from deforestation, agriculture and land use; deploying technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere; and even future economic growth. Graphs show the results immediately, including global warming, greenhouse gas emissions, energy demand, production, and prices, along with many other outcomes.
通过一个直观的界面，用户移动滑块来模拟实施减少全球温室气体排放的政策。选项包括影响运输和工业、住宅和商业建筑的全球能源需求的政策；从煤炭、石油、天然气、生物质、可再生能源和核能生产能源；从森林砍伐、农业和土地使用中排放；部署从大气中除去二氧化碳的技术；甚至未来的经济增长。图表立即显示结果，包括全球变暖、温室气体排放、能源需求、生产和价格，以及许多其他结果。
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An advanced mode allows users to set policies more precisely, such as the price of carbon, subsidies for efficiency or new technologies, and potential technical breakthroughs. All climate scenarios are sharable through social media and email.
先进模式允许用户更精确地制定政策，如碳价格、效率补贴或新技术，以及潜在的技术突破。所有气候情景都可以通过社交媒体和电子邮件共享。
Users can also vary a wide range of assumptions about the climate, economy and energy system, to see for themselves how sensitive their results are to uncertainty. In the background, En-ROADS simulates a system of non-linear differential equations representing the climate-energy-economic system.
用户还可以对气候、经济和能源系统做出各种各样的假设，看看他们的结果对不确定性有多敏感。在这一背景下，En-ROADS模拟了一个代表气候-能源-经济系统的非线性微分方程组。
The model complements, and is calibrated and tested against, other larger and more disaggregated energy and climate models such as those in the Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University, and those creating the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which are designed for use by researchers doing detailed analysis. Behind the simulator is an extensive study of the literature of important factors such as delay times, experience curves, price sensitivities, historic growth of energy sources, and energy efficiency potential.
该模型是对其他更大、更分类的能源和气候模型（如斯坦福大学能源建模论坛中的模型）和创建共享社会经济路径的模型的补充，并进行了校准和测试，这些模型是为进行详细分析的研究人员设计的。模拟器背后是对重要因素的文献的广泛研究，如延迟时间、经验曲线、价格敏感性、能源历史增长和能源效率潜力。
“Powerful simulators have fueled climate wonks for decades. This one works for users ranging from corporate CEOs and policy makers to smart eighth graders,” says Andrew Jones, co-founder and co-director of Climate Interactive.
“几十年来，强大的模拟器一直在为气候爱好者提供燃料。这项服务适用于从企业首 席执行官和政策制定者到聪明的八年级学生的用户。
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Jones says that a number of business leaders and politicians from both political parties have had the opportunity to review En-ROADS in its beta phase and reported interest in more in-depth exploration. Simulation results from earlier versions of En-ROADS, he says, have counseled Heads of State, bipartisan U.S. Congress members, and companies such as Total, Equinor and HSBC, among others.
琼斯说，两个政党的一些商界领 袖和政界人士都有机会在测试阶段对《公路》进行审查，并报告了他们对更深入的探索的兴趣。他说，早期版本En ROADS的模拟结果已经为国家元首、美国国会两党议员以及道达尔、Equinor和汇丰等公司提供了咨询。
“This is a tool for grounded hope,’ says Jones. “While there is no magic bullet to reverse climate change, we can still avoid its worst effects. En-ROADS allows people to build pathways to do so and discover new ways of framing the conversation.”
琼斯说：“这是一个让人产生希望的工具。”。“虽然没有逆转气候变化的灵丹妙药，但我们仍然可以避免其最坏的影响。“在道路上，人们可以建立这样做的途径，并发现构建对话的新方法。”
Sterman compares En-ROADS to simulators used in other settings. “Pilots learn to fly a new jet in simulators before going up in the real thing,” he says. “Surgical teams learn to work together in medical simulations. Power plant operators learn to handle potential emergencies in simulators. In these settings, and for climate change, failure is not an option. The En-ROADS simulator enables people to learn for themselves what it will take to avoid the worst consequences of global warming before it’s too late.”
斯特曼将En ROADS与其他设置中使用的模拟器进行了比较。他说：“飞行员在进入真实世界之前，先在模拟器中学习驾驶一架新的喷气式飞机。“外科团队学习在医学模拟中协同工作。电厂操作员学习在模拟器中处理潜在的紧急情况。在这些设置中，对于气候变化，故障不是一个选项。公路模拟器使人们能够自己学习如何避免全球变暖的最坏后果，以免为时已晚。”
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Prof. Sterman, Jones and the team at Climate Interactive designed and lead the Climate Action Simulation, a group role playing activity where participants take on the roles of leaders in business, civil society, and government. Teams represent different groups who convene to negotiate agreements and policies to limit global warming. Participants propose and negotiate over different policies such as carbon prices, subsidies for low-carbon energy, energy efficiency standards, and investments in R&D, among others. Their proposals are then tested in En-ROADS, providing participants with science-based feedback on their policy and investment proposals.
斯特曼教授、琼斯和气候互动组织的团队设计并领导了气候行动模拟，这是一项小组角色扮演活动，参与者在其中扮演商业、民间社会和政府领导人的角色。团队代表不同的团体，他们召集谈判达成协议和政策，以限制全球变暖。与会者就碳价格、低碳能源补贴、能效标准、研发投资等不同政策提出建议并进行谈判。然后，他们的建议在公路上进行测试，为参与者提供基于科学的政策和投资建议反馈。
A suite of materials can be downloaded for free to support people interested in using En-ROADS and running the role play in academic, business, and policy settings. An extensive reference guide to understanding the underlying equations is available as well to help users better understand the model.
一套材料可以免费下载，以支持有兴趣使用公路和运行在学术，商业和政策设置的角色扮演的人。一个广泛的参考指南，以了解基本方程，以及帮助用户更好地理解模型。
The Climate Action Simulation builds on the successful World Climate International negotiation game developed by the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative and Climate Interactive, where participants play the role of delegates to the annual UN climate negotiations. Since 2015, more than 62,000 people in 93 nations around the world have participated in role-playing in the World Climate game, with research showing that this approach leads to significant gains in people’s knowledge of climate change, their belief that action is urgently needed, and their desire to take action in the real world.
气候行动模拟建立在麻省理工学院斯隆可持续发展倡议和气候互动组织开发的成功的世界气候国际谈判游戏的基础上，参与者扮演年度联合国气候谈判代表的角色。自2015年以来，全球93个国家的6.2万多人参与了世界气候博弈，研究表明，这种方法大大提高了人们对气候变化的认识、他们认为迫切需要采取行动的信念以及他们在现实世界中采取行动的愿望。
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To access the En-ROADS climate solutions simulator, please visit here.
要访问En ROADS气候解决方案模拟器，请访问此处。
Take part in live webinars, which will offer demonstrations of En-ROADS throughout the day on December 3, 2019. To register for additional webinar demonstration dates, please visit: https://www.climateinteractive.org/get-involved/webinars/
参加现场网络研讨会，将于2019年12月3日全天提供En ROADS演示。要注册更多的网络研讨会演示日期，请访问：https://www.climateinteractive.org/get-involved/webinars/
About the Sustainability Initiative at MIT Sloan School of Management
关于麻省理工斯隆管理学院的可持续发展计划
The mission of the Sustainability Initiative at MIT Sloan School of Management is to deliver the best education, apply academic rigor to real world challenges, and empower leaders everywhere to take action, professionally, and personally, so that humans and nature can thrive for generations to come.
麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院可持续发展倡议的使命是提供最好的教育，将学术严谨应用于现实世界的挑战，并授权世界各地的领导人采取行动，专业和个人，使人类和自然能够繁荣世代。
About Climate Interactive
关于气候互动
Climate Interactive is a think tank that creates tools and resources to help people explore what it takes to address climate change. Climate Interactive provides unique tools and analysis that distill complex science and data into forms accessible to a wide range of audiences with computer modeling, systems thinking, organizational learning, and cutting-edge facilitation practices.
气候互动是一个智囊团，它创造工具和资源，帮助人们探索如何应对气候变化。Climate Interactive提供独特的工具和分析，将复杂的科学和数据提炼成各种形式，通过计算机建模、系统思维、组织学习和尖端的便利化实践，广泛的受众可以访问这些形式。
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About the MIT Sloan School of Management
关于麻省理工斯隆管理学院
The MIT Sloan School of Management is where smart, independent leaders come together to solve problems, create new organizations, and improve the world. Learn more at mitsloan.mit.edu.
麻省理工斯隆管理学院（MIT Sloan School of Management）是聪明、独立的领导聚集在一起解决问题、创建新组织、改善世界的地方。在mitsloan.mit.edu了解更多。
For further information, please contact:
欲了解更多信息，请联系：
Paul Denning, MIT Sloan Director of Media Relations 617-253-0576 denning@mit.edu Patricia Favreau, MIT Sloan Associate Director of Media Relations 617-253-3492 pfavreau@mit.edu Andrew Jones, Climate Interactive +1-828-231-4576 apjones@climateinteractive.org Ellie Johnston, Climate Interactive +1-336-202-8907 ejohnston@climateinteractive.org
Paul Denning，麻省理工斯隆媒体关系总监617-253-0576 Denning@MIT.edu Patricia Favreau，麻省理工斯隆媒体关系副总监617-253-3492 pfavreau@MIT.edu Andrew Jones，Climate Interactive+1-828-231-4576 apjones@climateinteractive.org Ellie Johnston，Climate Interactive+1-336-202-8907 ejohnston@climateinteractive.org
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