DHL和纽约大学斯特恩商学院发布DHL全球连通性指数-新东方前途出国

　　DHL Global Connectedness Index: Globalization Holding Up Under Pressure

　　DHL全球连通性指数：全球化在压力下保持

　　December 4, 2019

　　2019年12月4日

　　The Index retreated modestly last year, pulled down by weak capital flows Trade remained resilient during 2018, but tensions are taking a toll in 2019 Overall, the world is still more connected than at almost any other point in history

　　该指数去年小幅回落，受2018年资本流动疲弱的拖累，贸易仍保持弹性，但2019年的紧张局势总体上造成了损失，全球的联系仍比历史上几乎任何时候都要紧密 在线咨询

　　DHL and NYU Stern School of Business today released the 2019 update of the DHL Global Connectedness Index (GCI), which highlights key developments in international flows of capital, trade, information, and people. The new report shows that shrinking international capital flows caused global connectedness to dip slightly in 2018. However, despite strong headwinds in global geopolitics and trade, the GCI stayed close to its record high of 2017. The world remains more connected than at almost any other point in history, with no signs of a broad reversal of globalization so far.

　　DHL和纽约大学斯特恩商学院今天发布了DHL全球连通性指数（GCI）2019年更新，该指数强调了资本、贸易、信息和人员国际流动方面的关键发展。新报告显示，国际资本流动的萎缩导致2018年全球连通性略有下降。然而，尽管全球地缘政治和贸易出现强劲逆风，全球气候变化指数仍接近2017年的历史高点。世界的联系比历史上几乎任何时候都要紧密，到目前为止还没有全球化大逆转的迹象。

　　“International exchange empowers people and businesses around the world to collaborate and seize new opportunities,” comments John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “While current geopolitical tensions could seriously disrupt global connectedness, this 2019 update finds that most international flows have remained surprisingly resilient so far. Ultimately, what we’re seeing today is the evolution of globalization, not its decline. Decision-makers need to be careful to not overreact to strong rhetoric or headlines.”

　　DHL快递首 席执行官约翰·皮尔森评论说：“国际交流使世界各地的人们和企业能够合作，抓住新的机遇。”。“虽然当前的地缘政治紧张局势可能会严重破坏全球联系，但2019年的最新报告发现，迄今为止，大多数国际资金流动仍保持惊人的弹性。归根结底，我们今天看到的是全球化的演变，而不是它的衰落。决策者需要小心，不要对强烈的言辞或头条新闻反应过度。” 在线咨询

　　This update of the DHL Global Connectedness Index was calculated based on more than 3.5 million data points on country-to-country-flows. It provides full coverage from 2001 to 2018, along with partial analysis of the first half of 2019. The report also features a deep dive into the U.S.-China trading relationship, tracing the sharp decline in U.S.-China trade, as well as an examination of recent claims that globalization is giving way to regionalization.

　　DHL全球连通性指数的这次更新是根据350多万个国家间流量数据点计算得出的。它提供了2001年至2018年的全覆盖，以及2019年上半年的部分分析。报告还对美中贸易关系进行了深入调查，追踪了美中贸易的急剧下降，并审查了最近有关全球化正在让位给区域化的说法。

　　“Our analysis does not confirm a robust regionalization trend. Instead, we see that the average distance across which countries trade has held steady since 2012,” explains Steven A. Altman, Senior Research Scholar at the NYU Stern School of Business and lead author of the DHL Global Connectedness Index. “While fraying relations between major economies could lead to a fracturing along regional lines, such a shift has not yet conclusively taken place.”

　　“我们的分析并没有证实强劲的区域化趋势。相反，我们看到，自2012年以来，各国贸易的平均距离一直保持稳定，”纽约大学斯特恩商学院高级研究学者、DHL全球连接指数的主要作者史蒂文A阿尔特曼解释道。“虽然主要经济体之间关系的破裂可能导致地区关系的破裂，但这种转变尚未最终实现。”

　　Trade and capital flows: lower, but no sign of a collapse

　　贸易和资本流动：下降，但没有崩溃的迹象

　　As the GCI update shows, trade flows continued to intensify through the early stages of the U.S.-China trade war in 2018. However, this strength did not extend into 2019. In the first half of this year, the share of global output traded across national borders fell. While trade volume growth is likely to remain positive this year, it is not expected to keep pace with GDP growth. Nonetheless, current forecasts suggest that trade intensity is on track for only a modest decline through 2020.

　　GCI最新报告显示，2018年美中贸易战初期，贸易流动继续加剧。不过，这一实力并没有延续到2019年。今年上半年，跨境贸易占全球产出的比重下降。虽然今年的贸易额增长可能保持正增长，但预计不会与GDP增长同步。尽管如此，目前的预测显示，到2020年，贸易强度只会小幅下降。 在线咨询

　　Capital was the only pillar of the index that declined in 2018. In fact, the pullback in global connectedness was entirely driven by shrinking international capital flows, specifically foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio equity investment. While early capital flow data for 2019 suggest some stabilization, a robust recovery on these metrics remains elusive. However, a large part of the recent FDI drop was due to U.S. tax policy changes, which have prompted U.S. multinationals to repatriate earnings held abroad. This suggests that fundamentals may be stronger than they appear, with no broad retreat from corporate globalization underway.

　　资本是该指数2018年下跌的唯 一支柱。事实上，全球联系度的回落完全是由国际资本流动的萎缩，特别是外国直接投资（FDI）和投资组合股权投资推动的。尽管2019年的早期资本流动数据显示出一定程度的稳定，但这些指标的强劲复苏仍难以捉摸。然而，近期外国直接投资下降的很大一部分原因是美国税收政策的变化，这促使美国跨国公司将在海外持有的收益汇回本国。这表明，基本面可能比看上去更为强劲，企业全球化并未出现大范围倒退。

　　Global information and people flows: still advancing

　　全球信息和人员流动：仍在推进

　　The globalization of information flows continues to progress, but available measures point to a possible slowdown. While growth of international communications has typically far outpaced the growth of domestic communications since at least the early 2000s, recent data suggest that both are now growing at more similar rates. Global people flows also continue to advance. Outbound travel from emerging economies and liberalization of tourist visa requirements have given international tourism a significant boost. Despite public policy controversies, international migration also continues to grow.

　　信息流动的全球化继续取得进展，但现有的措施表明可能出现放缓。尽管至少从21世纪初开始，国际通信的增长通常远远超过国内通信的增长，但最近的数据表明，两者的增长速度现在更为相似。全球人口流动也在继续推进。新兴经济体的出境旅游和旅游签证要求的放宽，大大推动了国际旅游业的发展。尽管公共政策存在争议，但国际移民也在继续增长。 在线咨询

　　Domestic business activity still dominates

　　国内商业活动仍然占主导地位

　　Looking ahead, the 2019 update notes that all four flows measured by the DHL Global Connectedness Index— trade, capital, information and people—are currently running up against powerful headwinds. Rising barriers and uncertainty about future openness are starting to carry significant costs. At the same time, a survey on globalization perceptions reveals that many people do not realize how limited global connectedness actually is. While the world is more connected than at almost any previous point in history, most business still takes place within rather than across national borders. The report highlights how such exaggerated perceptions of globalization can lead to distorted decision-making in business and an underestimation of the significant potential available from further increases in global connectedness.

　　展望未来，2019年的最新报告指出，DHL全球连通性指数衡量的四大流量——贸易、资本、信息和人员——目前都面临着强大的逆风。越来越多的壁垒和未来开放的不确定性开始带来巨大的成本。同时，一项关于全球化认知的调查显示，许多人并没有意识到全球联系实际上是多么有限。尽管世界的联系比历史上任何时候都要紧密，但大多数商业活动仍然是在国内进行的，而不是跨越国界。报告强调，这种对全球化的夸大认识如何可能导致商业决策的扭曲，并低估了进一步增加全球联系所带来的巨大潜力。