悉尼商务洞察 | 中国经济的“韧性”与前瞻_杭州新东方前途出国的博客-新东方前途出国

The COVID-19 epidemic broke out suddenly in the beginning of this year. Unexpectedly, the epidemic rampage rapidly became a pandemic plaguing the world, though China has won phase victory in its prevention and control of the deadly virus. It is now difficult to predict how China’s economy and that of the world are affected by the COVID-19.

不过，从4、5月份的经济数据和活动恢复情况看，中国经济正在重现生机与活力，长期向好的趋势没有改变。我们可以用“韧性”来概括中国经济的特点，并据此做一些前瞻。

However, as far as we can judge from the aspects of economic data and business recovery situation in April and May, China’s economy is regaining its vigor and vitality and remains on the long-term upward curve. I would like to adopt the term "resilience" to summarize the characteristics of China’s economy and have made some prospects accordingly.

何谓“韧性”？韧性是物理学的概念，表示材料在塑性变形和破裂过程中吸收能量的能力。韧性越好，则发生脆性断裂的可能性越小。将这个概念用于经济活动，通常就是指经济体抗波动、风险和危机的能力。在波动、风险和危机的冲击下，经济仍然能够逆势增长和发展，就被认为有韧性，或者韧性好。

What is "resilience"? Resilience is a concept of physics, which refers to the ability of a material to absorb energy up to a plastic deformation or a fracture. The better the resilience is, the less likely brittle fracture occurs to the material. When this concept is applied to economic activities, it usually means the ability of an economy to resist fluctuation, risk and crisis. An economy will be deemed to be resilient or have good resilience if it manages to grow and develop against the trend under the impact of fluctuation, risk and crisis.

中国经济的韧性源于哪里？以往看到一些关于这个问题的讨论，集中在关于中国国情方面。例如，人口多、市场大，潜力无穷；地域辽阔，且发展不平衡，常常会“东方不亮西方亮”等等。这些看法都有一定的道理。笔者认为，从体制和政策角度，中国经济的韧性源于以下五个方面：特有的体制优势、坚持市场化改革、坚持高水平开放、坚持内生化发展和不断优化的宏观调控。在这篇短文中，我们重点分析特有的体制优势和不断优化的宏观调控。

Where does the resilience of China’s economy come from? In the previous discussions on this issue, the main focus of attention was China's national conditions, e.g. China’s large population, extensive market, and unlimited potential, vast territory, uneven development, and “those strategies impracticable here turning out to be workable elsewhere". Those views make certain sense. In my opinion, from the perspectives of system and policy, the resilience of China’s economy comes from the following five aspects: unique system advantages, adherence to market-oriented reform, adherence to high-level opening-up, adherence to endogenous development, and continuously optimized macro-control. In this article, emphasis will be placed on the analysis of China’s unique system advantages and continuously optimized macro-control.

在经济或非经济因素的影响下，经济运行会发生较大的波动，甚至遭遇系统性风险，或可能引发经济衰退乃至萧条。此时，非常考验一国政府的应对能力。这种能力是建立在现有体制基础上的。以这次疫情冲击为例。从防治、防控疫情的全局来看，充分彰显我国的体制优势。党和政府集中统一领导，有效动员和组织资源；政令畅通，集中优势“兵力”围剿疫情；部门联动、对口支援和高效执行，等等。毋庸讳言，政府对经济的干预，尤其是不得已的大规模干预，会产生后遗症。但是，这是两害相权取其轻的问题。一如凯恩斯当年所说，社会不能承受严重的、持续的失业。长期来看，我们也许能够达到充分就业，但在短期，如果任由失业增长下去，就有可能爆发社会危机。当经济、社会受到严重冲击，党和政府能够“挽狂澜于既倒”，是体制优势的集中表现。而且，一旦当波动平稳，风险淡去，危机化解，经济社会就会回到正常状态并蓄势前行。

Under the influence of economic or non-economic factors, there will be great fluctuations in economic operation, or even potential systemic, economic recession or depression. In this context, a government's response ability plays a very critical role which is based on the government’s existing system. Taking the impact of this COVID-19 pandemic as an example, China's system advantages have been fully demonstrated from the perspective of prevention and control of the pandemic in its totality: under the centralized and unified leaderships of the CPC and central government, the resources can be effectively mobilized and organized; relying on smooth implementation of the central leadership’s orders and policies, the superior "forces" can be integrated to fight against the novel coronavirus; besides, interdepartmental linkage, pairing assistance and execution are very effective. Needless to say, government intervention in the economy, especially forced large-scale intervention, will produce aftereffects. However, it is a matter of the lesser of two evils. As John Maynard Keynes said, the society cannot afford serious and sustained unemployment. In the long term, we may achieve full employment, but in the short term, a social crisis may break out if the unemployment continues to rise. When the economy and society are severely impacted, the CPC and central government can make vigorous efforts to turn the table in adversity, which collectively indicates China’s system advantages. Moreover, once the fluctuation becomes sable, the risk disappears and the crisis is resolved, the economy and society will return to normal and be poised to move forward.

由于外部冲击造成较为严重的经济波动，就必须进行必要的逆周期调节，以防范风险和危机的发生。这里，逆周期调节是由一系列宏观调控政策措施组成的。改革开放以来，我国的宏观调控在经历了多次经济波动，尤其是亚洲金融危机、美国金融危机，以及价格改革、经济过热等数次大的冲击后，在实践、总结和再实践的过程中，已经比较成熟，表现出足够的定力。就像此次疫情，它所造成的影响和冲击是前所未有、空前巨大并将长期持续的，这是各方面专家的一致共识。而且，以往在应对总需求、总供给冲击方面的经验，在这一次疫情冲击面前，要么失效了，要么难以对症。但是，我们仍然正确地把握了宏观调控的大方向，在一系列具体操作上动态地灵活调整，不仅在短时间内使经济出现了回暖态势，而且有力地加快了创新驱动、转型发展。

In case of severe economic fluctuations due to external shocks, counter-cyclical adjustment is required, so as to prevent the occurrence of risks and crises. The aforesaid counter-cyclical adjustment consists of a series of macro-control policies and measures. Since the reform and opening-up, China’s macro-control has undergone several economic fluctuations. Especially after the Asian Financial Crisis 1997, the American Financial Crisis 2008, price reform and overheated economy, China’s macro-control has become relatively mature and sufficiently stable upon practice, summary and re-practice. All experts concerned have reached a consensus that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented, unprecedentedly huge and will last for a long term. In addition, China’s experience in coping with aggregate demand and aggregate supply either fail or is uncorrelated with the pandemic. However, China has correctly grasped the general direction of macro-control and made flexible adjustments in a series of operations. Thus, China not only has achieved its economic recovery in a short time, but also has accelerated innovation-driven and transformational development effectively.

当然，大家在肯定中国经济的韧性，以及体制优势、市场化改革、高水平开放和内生化发展，以及宏观调控对韧性形成的作用的同时，也要充分认识到，我国作为最大的发展中国家，经济实力、科技水平与发达国家相比，仍然存在较大差距；我们在治理、体制和政策方面，还有诸多短板和瓶颈。我们要充分利用中国经济的韧性，在遇到外部冲击时，能够较快地扭转局势，回到常态化发展的轨道；在正常时期继续保持经济的中高速增长和高质量发展，以进一步补齐短板、克服瓶颈，缩小与发达国家之间的差距。

While affirming the resilience of China's economy, its system advantages, market-oriented reform, high-level opening-up, endogenous development, and macro-control’s role in forming such resilience, we shall also recognize that: there still exists a wide gap in economic strength and scientific and technological level between developed countries and China; as the largest developing country, China still have many weaknesses and bottlenecks in governance, systems and policies. Consequently, China must make full use of the resilience of its economy under the external impacts, so as to quickly turn the table and go back to the track of normalized development. In normal times, China shall continue to maintain medium- and high-rate growth and high-quality development, so as to remove the bottlenecks and narrow the gap between it and developed countries.

基于上述，我们认为，如果不发生疫情的“第二波”冲击，全球疫情尽快得到有效控制，中国经济将在今年第三季度基本回到常态，并出现较为强劲的增长。在未来一个时期，中国经济将继续沿着高质量发展的要求，以创新驱动，区域一体化和新兴产业为主要动力点，持续向着既定目标前行。

Therefore, in my opinion, in case of no impact of the "second wave" of the COVID-19, with the global pandemic being effectively controlled as soon as possible, China’s economy will basically return to normal in the third quarter of this year, and will signify relatively robust growth. In the next period, China’s economy will move towards the established goals, boosted by key drivers including innovation-driven strategies, regional integration and emerging industries, in alignment with the requirements of high-quality development.